Libya: The Prospect of War by Paul Rogers
(note: I have been reading the stuff that Paul Rogers writes from sometime, mostly on the `Open Democracy‘ website. Here is his analysis on the prospect of war – meaning foreign intervention in the civil war in Libya. Classic Rogers piece, he is careful not to over-predict, but he does give a thorough [well for a short piece] and useful piece on the military, economic and political issues involved. )
The conflict in Libya is taking on the character of a civil war as Muammar Gaddafi’s regime recovers from its earlier reversals and consolidates its forces. Its substantial support is concentrated mainly in western Libya, especially around the greater Tripoli area which has nearly one-third of the country’s 6 million population (see Alison Pargeter, “Libya: a hard road ahead“, 8 March 2011).
The course of the conflict as it enters this new phase will depend largely on the regime’s strategy over the next week. Gaddafi’s success requires the effective deployment of his military and paramilitary forces, by no means all of which are reliable. In addition, the escalation of conflict inside Libya raises the possibility of external military intervention. These two issues – the internal war, and the influence of outside powers – will be considered in turn. (To continue reading: click here)